Small Business Outlook: Inflationary Headwinds Continue

Small businesses are positive about their own balance sheets but are not betting on inflation going down, according to the latest surveys. A recent survey found that 96% of small business owners will vote in the presidential election, and Main Street employers want to hear plans for reducing inflation from political candidates.

Listen: Tom Sullivan and National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)'s Holly Wade talk about their small business forecasts on a weekly podcast. Listen here.

Watch: Catch Tom Sullivan on ASBN (America's Small Business Network) every month, providing the latest small business news and policy updates. Watch here.

Coming Soon! The Q2 2024 MetLife & U.S. Chamber Small Business Index will be released in June 2024.

New Small Business Data

Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Business Voices Survey(April 30, 2024)

Summary: Inflationary pressures are increasing for small businesses.

• 31% of small business owners describe the U.S. economy as “excellent or good.”  39% describe the economy as “fair,” and 29% view it as “poor or very poor.”
• 64% of small business owners report operating at or above pre-pandemic levels.
• 33% of small business owners view finding and keeping good employees as their most significant problem. 26% view inflation as their top problem, followed by affordable employee benefits (18%) and access to capital (16%).
• 71% of small business owners report that inflationary pressures have increased over the past 3-months. 
• 96% of small business owners report they will vote in the presidential election, and 20% are undecided on who they will support (compared to 12% of the general public who are undecided).
• 55% of small business owners are dissatisfied with how the presidential candidates are addressing small business issues. 73% want the candidates to address inflation.  72% want the candidates to address tax policy, and 70% want the candidates to address the regulatory burden on small businesses. 66% want access to capital addressed, followed by workforce training (59%).

Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Success Month Survey (May 1, 2024)

Summary: A fascinating exploration of motivation and satisfaction among small business owners.  

• 64% of small business owners believe they are on track to meet their earnings goals this year, and 19% believe they are running behind.
• “Providing for myself/my family” is the number one reason small business owners feel successful. Followed by “building a good reputation,” “hitting my financial goals,” and “achieving work/life balance.”
• 86% of small business owners report that business ownership has helped them meet their personal financial goals.
• 68% of small business owners believe their local communities support them by telling their friends and family.  61% experience that support through positive reviews, and 57% experience that support when locals choose their business over larger businesses (55% of revenue comes from their local communities).
• 85% of small business owners support local charities, with food banks being the most popular (36%), followed by education programs (35%) and environmental initiatives (34%).
• 62% of small business owners have previously started or owned a business, and 55% were driven towards business ownership to make better money. 54% cite their primary motivation to own a business as being their own boss, and 50% say they’re business owners to improve work/life balance. 
• The top cause for satisfaction among small business owners is being their own boss (23%), followed by work/life balance (19%).  Financial stability (17%) ranks alongside enjoying the people they work with (17%) and flexibility (17%).

CNBC | SurveyMonkey Small Business Confidence Index for Q2 (May 2, 2024)

Summary: Small business owners’ anxiety over rising inflation is up, and confidence in their own businesses is down. 

• 35% of small business owners feel good about the health of their own business (down 3 points from last quarter), and 18% feel bad about their own business (1 point worse than last quarter).
• 47% of small business owners expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (down 1 point from last quarter).
• 44% of small business owners have a negative view of the state of the economy (no change from the last quarter), and 27% of small business owners have a positive view (down 1 point from last quarter).
• 24% of small business owners believe inflation has peaked (down 4 points from last quarter), and 75% expect inflation to continue to rise (up 6 points from last quarter).
• 31% of small business owners are confident in the Federal Reserve’s ability to control inflation (down 4 points from last quarter).
• 62% of small business owners expect their number of full-time employees will stay the same this year (up 2 points from last quarter), and 23% believe they will add employees (down 3 points from last quarter).
• 49% of small business owners anticipate a negative impact from federal regulations over the next 12 months (unchanged from last quarter), and 53% anticipate changes in tax policy will negatively impact their business (1 point higher than last quarter).
• 63% of small business owners view inflation and economic growth as the top issues when it comes to who they will vote for in the upcoming presidential election. Other ranked policies are tax policy (54%), safety & crime (53%), foreign policy (49%), and healthcare costs (47%). Respondents view tax policy as the most important issue.

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) April Jobs Report (May 2, 2024)

Summary: Finding, hiring, and keeping good employees continues to challenge small employers.

• 40% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill in March (up 3 points from March and still far above the 49-year average of 23%).
• 56% of small businesses hired or tried to hire in April (no change from February or March). Of those hiring, 91% of owners reported few or no qualified job applicants (5 points higher than March).
• 12% of small business owners are planning to create new jobs in the next 3 months (up 1 point from March).
• 38% of businesses raised compensation in February (no change since March), and 21% of small business owners plan on raising compensation in the next 3 months (also no change since March).
• 34% of small businesses have openings for skilled workers (up 3 points from March), and 18% have openings for unskilled labor  (up 4 points from March).
• Over half the small businesses in construction have a job opening they can’t fill.

WSJ / Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index (April 24, 2024)

Summary: The monthly index continues a downward slide with hiring expectations dipping due to inflationary wage pressure. Revenue and profit expectations shrink, but investment plans hold steady.

• 24% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to 12 months ago (down 3 points from March), and 32% say that the economy has gotten worse over the past year (5 points worse than March).
• 24% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (down 2 points from March), and 26% believe the economy will worsen (4 points worse than March).
• 48% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12 months (down 6 points from March). 
• 34% of small businesses expect to increase fixed investments in the next year (unchanged from March).
• 60% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (2 points less than March). 
• 46% believe profitability will improve (down 2 points from March), and 20% of small business owners believe profitability will decrease (3 points worse than March).

MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q1 (April 2, 2024)

Summary: Negative feelings about the economy lessen for Main Street, and inflation remains front and center on small business owners’ radar.

• 33% of small business owners are positive about the national economy’s overall health (increased 8 points since last quarter) and 48% are negative about the U.S. economy (5 points less negative than last quarter).
• 38% of small business owners are positive about their local economy (8 points higher since last quarter) and 30% have a negative view of their local economy (2 points less negative than last quarter).
• 52% of small business owners rank inflation at their top concern (9th consecutive quarter at top). 
• 16% of small business owners added staff in the past year (down 1 point from last quarter and down 3 points from a year ago).
• 36% of small businesses plan on increasing investment over the next 12-months (6 points lower than last quarter) and 34% of small businesses plan on adding staff (6 points lower than last quarter).
• The percentage of small businesses anticipating increased revenues remains elevated (67%) albeit 4 points lower than the last 2 quarters’ record highs.
• 65% of small businesses believe the health of their own businesses is good (1 point increase from last quarter) and 67% are comfortable with their current cash flow (no change from last quarter).
• 60% of small business owners are concerned about cyber threats and 48% have trained staff on cybersecurity safety measures.
• 62% of small business owners contribute to a “rainy-day fund” in anticipation of a crisis or threat and 61% feel comfortable about their ability to withstand a disaster. 

Gusto New Business Formation Report (April 2, 2024)

Summary: Some startup trends remain the same (funding through personal savings) and some are different (women outpaced men in 2021 and 2023).

• 49% of 2023’s startups reported they are women-owned (no change since 2020 and 20 points more than 2019).  45% of 2023’s startups reported they are owned by men.
• 70% of women CEOs cited flexibility as the top motivator for launching their business in 2023 and flexibility ranked highest for startups owned by men too (66%).
• 67% used $10,000 or less (mostly in personal savings) to start their businesses in 2023.
• 35% of 2023’s startups hired fully remote employees (13 points higher than 2022).

About the authors

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

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